CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-26T06:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-26T06:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34212/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and X1.8 flare from Active Region 13873 (S16E60) starting around 2024-10-26T06:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible over the southeast limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193, with post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 starting around 07:50Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T04:13Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-28T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
expected arrival time: 2024-10-28T06:00:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 5 max_estimated_peak_K: 7 probability_of_arrival: 60Lead Time: 32.68 hour(s)
Difference: -1.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2024-10-26T19:32Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement